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Conversations on the Future of the North American Economic Partnership

Conversations on the Future of the North American Economic Partnership

Feb. 27, 2017

Download the Program (PDF)

Location: Hojel Auditorium, Institute of the Americas, UC San Diego Campus

This daylong set of conversations with thought leaders from policy circles, industry and academia will initiate a dialogue on the future of the North American partnership. Experts engaged in discussions that analyze the likely consequences of revoking NAFTA on trade, diplomacy, security and the broader U.S.-Mexico relationship.

The conference marks the beginning of a series of high-level meetings and research projects that will present ongoing academic analysis from a political economy perspective in support of sound policymaking. The conference was  divided into three sessions. Session one assessed the impact of NAFTA and put forth projections on the size and wealth of the North American market in the coming decades with and without NAFTA. Session two assessed the spillover of NAFTA into other areas of the bilateral relationship. Last, session three closed the discussion by examining what lies ahead for U.S.-Mexico relations.

This event was hosted in collaboration with Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos InternacionalesInstitute of the AmericasProcopio, San Diego Regional Chamber of CommerceSmart Border CoalitionUniversity of San Diego’s Justice in Mexico and World Trade Center San Diego.

Agenda

9:30 – 10 a.m. | Registration and Breakfast

10 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. | Session I: The Future of the North American Economy

10 a.m. Welcome

  • Gordon Hanson, UC San Diego
  • Melissa Floca, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies 

10:10 a.m. NAFTA in Retrospective

  • Beatriz Leycegui, SAI Law & Economics
  • Russ Jones, Border Trade Alliance
  • Antonio Ortiz-Mena, Albright Stonebridge Group
  • Chair: Denise Moreno Ducheny, UC San Diego

10:55 a.m. North American Competitiveness Outlook Without NAFTA

  • Gordon Hanson, UC San Diego
  • Lindsay Oldenski, Georgetown University
  • Chair: Nikia Clarke, World Trade Center San Diego

11:30 a.m. The Imperfections of NAFTA: Economic Dualities in North American Markets

  • Gerardo Esquivel, COLMEX
  • Jaana Remes, McKinsey Global Institute
  • Harley Shaiken, UC Berkeley
  • Chair: Dudley Althaus, Wall Street Journal

12:15 p.m. Keynote by Senator Armando Rios Piter, Operacion Monarca

  • Introduction: Paola Avila, San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce

12:30 p.m. | Luncheon

1:30 – 3 p.m. | Session II: The Spillovers of NAFTA: Diplomacy and Security

1:30 p.m. The Imperatives of Binational Security Cooperation

  • Alan Bersin, Harvard Kennedy School
  • David Shirk, University of San Diego
  • Guillermo Valdes, GEA
  • Chair: James Clark, Smart Border Coalition-San Diego/Tijuana 

2:15 p.m. Mexican and Canadian Diplomacy Towards the U.S.: The Non-NAFTA Scenario

  • Thomas d’Aquino, North American Forum 
  • Jeffrey Davidow, The Cohen Group
  • Rafael Fernandez de Castro, ITAM
  • Chair: Jamal Khokhar, Institute of the Americas

3 p.m. | Coffee Break

3:30 – 5 p.m. | Session III: The Road Ahead

3:30 p.m. Keynote by Juan Carlos Baker, Mexico's Deputy Minister of Foreign Trade

3:45 p.m. The Impact of a New Cross-Border Tax Regime

  • Steve Zisser, Zisser Group
  • Raul Villarreal Garza, Procopio
  • Chair: Beatriz Leycegui, SAI Consulting

4:15 p.m. The Implications of New Political Realities: What Lies Ahead for the North American Partnership

  • Michael Camuñez, ManattJones
  • Thomas d’Aquino, North American Forum 
  • Luis Rubio, COMEXI
  • Chair: Elisabeth Malkin, New York Times

5 p.m. | Reception

Speakers

Speakers

Juan Carlos Baker, Mexico's Deputy Minister of Foreign Trade
Juan Carlos Baker is Mexico's Deputy Minister of Foreign Trade and built his career in public service over twenty years at Mexico's Ministry of Economy. He has held a variety of positions related to the economic relationship with North America and the rest of the world, supporting the country's economic relationships globally. He is a graduate of the Tecnologico de Monterrey and has also completed studies at the University of Warwick.

Alan Bersin, Harvard Kennedy School
Alan Bersin is a fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He served as assistant secretary for international affairs and chief diplomatic officer for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Policy. n those capacities, Bersin led and oversaw DHS’s international engagement, served as the principal adviser to the secretary in all matters pertaining to international affairs, and was responsible for leading the department’s strategic planning and policy formulation functions. Additionally, Bersin served as vice president of the Americas region for Interpol and as a member of Interpol’s executive committee.

Michael Camuñez, ManattJones
Michael Camuñez is president and CEO of ManattJones Global Strategies. From 2010 to 2013, Camuñez was assistant secretary of commerce at the International Trade Administration, where he managed a global portfolio and helped lead the government’s efforts to open new markets for U.S. goods and services. Camuñez played a critical role in rebalancing the country’s economic policy toward Mexico, leading trade and policy missions, and helping update and modernize initiatives to enhance cross-border trade and investment. He also was the chief architect of the U.S.-Mexico High-Level Economic Dialogue.

Jeffrey Davidow, The Cohen Group
In his 34-year foreign service career, Jeffrey Davidow gained extensive experience in Latin America and Africa, serving as a U.S. ambassador to Mexico, Venezuela and Zambia. Davidow, who is now a senior counselor at The Cohen Group, also headed the State Department’s efforts in Latin America, serving as assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs. He retired in 2003 from the department with the rank of career ambassador. He also served as an adviser to President Barack Obama for the 2009 Summit of the Americas.

Thomas d’Aquino, North American Forum
Thomas d’Aquino is Canada co-chair of the North American Forum, as well as an entrepreneur, philanthropist, corporate director, author and educator. From 1981 to 2009, d’Aquino was chief executive of the Canadian Council of Chief Executives, comprising 150 of Canada’s leading enterprises and entrepreneurs. He was one of the private sector architects of the Canada-U.S. and North American free trade initiatives, organized and co-chaired the first Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO Summit, and he led the first Canadian CEO missions to China and India. Earlier in his career, d’Aquino served as special assistant to the prime minister of Canada.

Gerardo Esquivel, COLMEX
Since 1998, Gerardo Esquivel has served as a research professor at the Center of Economic Studies at El Colegio de Mexico (COLMEX). He also holds positions as an executive research coordinator at the Institute of Belisario Dominguez del Senado de la Republica, as an economics professor at Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, and as a member of the National System of Researchers Level III. In 2005, Esquivel received the award in social science research from the Mexican Academy of Sciences. Later, in 2008, he received the economic award “Ramon Beteta Quintana” and, in 2014, the National Public Finances Award.

Rafael Fernandez de Castro, ITAM
Rafael Fernández de Castro is presidential adviser for international affairs and competitiveness and founder and head of the Department of International Studies at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM), as well as editor of Foreign Affairs en Español. Fernández de Castro has published numerous academic articles and written several books, including “The United States and Mexico: Between Partnership and Conflict with Jorge Domínguez” and “The U.S. Congress: The Controversial Pivot of North America with Robert Pastor.” Previously, he participated in the Binational Panel on Migration, which published the U.S.-Mexico Binational Study on Migration.

Gordon Hanson, UC San Diego
Gordon Hanson holds the Pacific Economic Cooperation Chair in International Economic Relations at UC San Diego. He holds faculty positions in the Department of Economics and at the School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS), where he also serves as acting dean and director of the School’s Center on Global Transformation. As well, Hanson is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and co-editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives. He is a past co-editor of the Review of Economics and Statistics and the Journal of Development Economics. Hanson specializes in the economics of international trade, international migration and foreign direct investment.

Russ Jones, Border Trade Alliance
Russ Jones is one of the U.S.-Mexico border’s largest customs brokers, with operations in California, Arizona and Pharr, Texas. He is currently chairman of Border Trade Alliance. Formerly, he also represented the border town of Yuma, Arizona, in the Arizona State Legislature. Jones graduated from San Diego State University with a B.A in business administration. He also studied economic development at the University of Arizona.

Beatriz Leycegui, SAI Law & Economics
Beatriz Leycegui has more than 25 years of professional experience in international trade, which she has exercised in the private, public and academic sectors. Currently a partner at SAI Law & Economics, Leycegui re-joined the consulting firm in 2013 as head of SAI’s international trade law practice group. She aso served as undersecretary for foreign trade at the Ministry of Economy of Mexico between 2006 and 2011. She served in the same ministry as director of legal analysis at the office in charge of negotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement between 1990 and 1992. Leycegui’s public sector experience also includes five years of service at the Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 1983 to 1988.

Lindsay Oldenski, Georgetown University
Lindsay Oldenski is an associate professor at Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service. Prior to joining Georgetown, Oldenski taught at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, as well as at California State University San Marcos. She has worked as an economist at the U.S. Department of Treasury, an analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and a consultant in the biotech industry. Oldenski conducts research on international trade and multinational organizations. She currently is working on developing models to explain and predict the offshoring of services by multinational companies.

Antonio Ortiz-Mena, Albright Stonebridge Group
Antonio Ortiz-Mena is a senior advisor at Albright Stonebridge Group (ASG), where he provides strategic counsel and assistance to clients across Latin America. Ortiz-Mena began his career in the Mexican government, holding multiple senior advisory roles in the North American Free Trade Agreement Negotiation Office of the Ministry of Trade and Industrial Development, the Budget and Programming Ministry, and the Ministry of Fisheries. Prior to ASG, Ortiz-Mena served for more than eight years as the head of economic affairs at the Embassy of Mexico in the U.S. This included responsibilities over U.S.-Mexico energy, telecommunications and aviation issues, as well as serving as a liaison with the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, plus the G20 and the U.S.-Mexico High-Level Economic Dialogue. He holds a Ph.D. in political science, with a focus on international political economy, from UC San Diego. 

Senator Armando Rios Piter, Operacion Monarca
Senator Armando Ríos Piter is a graduate of UNAM and ITAM, as well as Georgetown University. He has served in a variety of elected offices and public sector positions in his home state of Guerrero, beginning his career in the ministry of finance and public credit. He was elected to the senate in 2012.

Jaana Remes, McKinsey Global Institute
Jaana Remes is an economist and a partner at the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), McKinsey & Co.’s business and economics research arm. Her most recent research looks at productivity and global growth prospects in an era of demographic decline. Her long-term research interests include analyses of how different policies have contributed to industry competitiveness and growth; the impact of multinational companies on emerging economies; and indepth assessments of the barriers to competitiveness and growth across a range of economies, including the U.S., Mexico, Brazil, Canada, U.K., Finland, Sweden and South Korea.

Luis Rubio, COMEXI
Luis Rubio is president of the Consejo Mexicano de Asuntos Internacionales (COMEXI). He is a prolific writer on political, economic and international subjects and chairman of CIDAC (Center of Research for Development), an independent research institution devoted to the study of economic and political policy issues. Prior, he was planning director of Citibank in Mexico and served as an adviser to Mexico’s Secretary of the Treasury. Rubio served on the board of directors of The Human Rights Commission of the Federal District and is a member of the Trilateral Commission.

Harley Shaiken, UC Berkeley
Harley Shaiken is a professor at the Graduate School of Education at UC Berkeley, where he focuses on the role of schooling and skills in the global economy. Shaiken explores issues at the intersection of information technology, work organization, labor and globalization. In particular, he has examined issues of economic and political integration in the Americas, with a focus on the U.S. and Mexico. He is currently the recipient of grants from the Ford Foundation and Hewlett Foundation. Since 1998, Shaiken has chaired the Center for Latin American Studies at UC Berkeley. He also has served as an adviser on globalization to key leaders of the U.S. Congress and to policymakers throughout the Americas.

David Shirk, University of San Diego
David Shirk is an associate professor of political science and international relations at the University of San Diego. Shirk’s teaching covers a range of subject areas, concentrated in comparative politics, international political economy, Latin American studies and U.S.-Latin American relations. He conducts research on Mexican politics, U.S.-Mexican relations, and law enforcement and security along the U.S.-Mexican border. Shirk also directs the Justice in Mexico Project, an initiative examining rule of law and security issues in Mexico. From 2003 to 2013, Shirk directed the Trans-Border Institute, which works to promote greater analysis and understanding of Mexico, U.S.-Mexico relations, and the U.S.-Mexico border region.

Guillermo Valdes, GEA
A partner at Grupo de Economistas y Asociados (GEA), Valdez previously directed the Center of Research and National Security (CISEN) from 2007 to 2011. As a member of the National Security Council and the Cabinet
for Public Security, his responsibilities included coordinating the generation of information for research, evaluation and strategic scenarios concerning the national security agenda. Alongside President Barack Obama’s National Security Adviser John Brennan, Valdez coordinated the U.S.-Mexico High-Level Group. Prior to CISEN, he first directed politics and opinion surveys at GEA.

Raúl Villarreal Garza, Procopio
Raúl Villarreal Garza is an attorney at Procopio, where he advises clients on matters related to international tax law. Focusing on cross-border transactions, he specializes in international tax planning and related legal matters involving the U.S., Mexico and other Latin-American countries. He has extensive experience in counseling as a tax attorney, particularly in domestic and international mergers, acquisitions and private equity deals, as well as the Mexican Tax Court.

Steven Zisser, Zisser Group
Steven Zisser is president and founder of the Zisser Group, with more than 20 years of experience in U.S. customs Law. A licensed attorney in the state of California, Zisser can practice before the U.S. Court of International Trade and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. He has developed procedures and processes for some of the nation’s largest manufacturers, distributors and retailers, covering classification, valuation, origin, marking/labeling, free trade agreements and recordkeeping.

Panel Chairs

Dudley Althaus, Wall Street Journal
Dudley Althaus has covered Mexico, Latin America and beyond for nearly three decades. Before joining the Wall Street Journal, he worked mostly for Texas newspapers, primarily for the Houston Chronicle. An Ohio native, Althaus earned his masters in journalism from the University of Texas at Austin before beginning his journalism career.

Paola Avila, San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce
Paola Avila is vice president of the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce and brings more than 15 years of experience in public policy, community outreach and government relations. In her current position, she focuses on advocacy of domestic and international public policies that enhance economic prosperity through trade, an efficient border and robust international relationships.

James C. Clark, Smart Border Coalition-San Diego/Tijuana
James Clark is the executive director of the San Diego/Tijuana Smart Border Coalition. The Coalition is the leading bi-national organization working to ease border wait times between California and Baja California. Prior to heading theCoalition, he was the founding director of the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce Mexico Business Center.

Nikia Clarke, San Diego Regional Economic Development Corporation (EDC) and World Trade Center San Diego (WTC)
Nikia Clarke is the senior vice president of the EDC and leads the WTC. She is the founder and former director of the Oxford University China Africa Network (OUCAN), an international organization that brings together senior policy makers, industry leaders, and researchers to identify and analyze emerging global investment and development trends. She holds a Ph.D. from the University of Oxford.

Denise Moreno Ducheny, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies
Former State Senator Denise Moreno Ducheny is the senior policy advisor at the Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies. Prior to joining the center, Ducheny served in the California State Senate from 2002 to 2010, representing the 40th District. She also served in the California State Assembly from 1994 to 2000 and on the San Diego Community College Board from 1990 to 1994.

Ambassador Jamal Khokhar, Institute of the Americas
Ambassador Jamal Khokhar has been president and CEO of the Institute of the Americas since September 2015. He was a senior career diplomat with Canadian Foreign Service in the Department of Global Affairs and he was Canada’s Ambassador to Brazil from 2010-2015.

Beatriz Leycegui, SAI Law & Economics
Beatriz Leycegui has more than 25 years of professional experience in international trade, which she has exercised in the private, public and academic sectors. She also served as undersecretary for foreign trade at the Ministry of Economy of Mexico between 2006 and 2011.

Elisabeth Malkin, New York Times
Elisabeth Malkin covers finance, trade, civil society and a broad range of topics on life in Mexico and the U.S.-Mexico relationship. She is a graduate of Yale University and Columbia University.

Presentations

Session I: The Future of the North American Economy

"Trade in the Time of Cholera"
Beatriz Leycegui, SAI Law & Economics

"North American Trade with and without NAFTA"
Gordon Hanson, UC San Diego

"Foreign Direct Investment by US Firms in Mexico"
Lindsay Oldenski, Georgetown University

"The Imperfections of NAFTA"
Gerardo Esquivel, COLMEX

"A tale of two Mexicos: Growth and prosperity in a two-speed economy"
Jaana Remes, McKinsey Global Institute

Keynote by Senator Armando Rios Piter, Operacion Monarca
"Mexico-US: The Best Is Yet To Come."

Session III: The Road Ahead

Presentation by Steve Zisser, Zisser Group

Press Coverage

NAFTA Under Siege
Feb. 23, 2017, USMEX conference spotlighted in This Week @ UC San Diego

Videos

Session I: The Future of the North American Economy
NAFTA in Retrospective


Session I: The Future of the North American Economy
North American Competitiveness Outlook Without NAFTA


Session I: The Future of the North American Economy
The Imperfections of NAFTA: Economic Dualities in North American Markets


Session II: The Spillovers of NAFTA: Diplomacy and Security
Mexican and Canadian Diplomacy Towards the U.S.: The Non-NAFTA Scenario


Session III: The Road Ahead
Keynote by Juan Carlos Baker, Mexico's Deputy Minister of Foreign Trade


Session III: The Road Ahead
The Impact of a New Cross-Border Tax Regime


Session III: The Road Ahead
The Implications of New Political Realities: What Lies Ahead for the North American Partnership