21st Century U.S.-Mexico Project

Mexico and the United States: Confronting the Twenty-First Century

The goal of this project is to provide an up-to-date assessment of key issues in the U.S.-Mexican relationship, identify points of convergence and divergence in respective national interests, and analyze likely consequences of potential policy approaches.

The project is co-sponsored by USMEX along with the Mexico Institute of the Woodrow Wilson Center (Washington DC), El Colegio de la Frontera Norte (Tijuana), and El Colegio de México (Mexico City).

TABLE OF CONTENTS:


PART I. THE GLOBAL CONTEXT


Prisms of Power: Global Scenarios and U.S.-Mexican Relations

Peter H. Smith

Are we moving toward a multipolar world? As “first among equals,” rather than a lone superpower, the United States appears to be facing new challenges from rising powers—such as Russia, India, and (especially) China.  How might this affect American diplomacy—and policies toward Mexico and the rest of Latin America?  Is the bilateral relationship between Mexico and the United States undergoing fundamental change? Does the present moment offer an historic opportunity? Why and in what way? What is likely to be the balance between continuity and change over the next generation?


Mexico's Position in a Changing World

Lorenzo Meyer

Will a shifting geopolitical landscape provide Mexico with new opportunities—or threats?  How can Mexico maintain its competitive niche in the global economy?  And how will this affect Mexico’s relationship with the United States?

PART II. ISSUES IN THE RELATIONSHIP: ECONOMICS AND SECURITY


NAFTA, Trade, and Development

Gerardo Esquivel and Robert Blecker

What impact has NAFTA exerted on relative levels of economic development in Mexico and the United States?  Has it reduced—or increased—the historic development gap?  To what extent does NAFTA give rise to a positive-sum game? What are the social and political implications of this situation?  After 15 years of implementation, does NAFTA need to be reformed?  Should U.S. policymakers be directly concerned about the progress of development in Mexico?makes foreign policy and how in Mexico and the United States? How do these processes affect the conduct of the relationship? Do Mexico and the United States have coherent policies toward each other? What are the relative roles of the presidency, the legislature, special interests, public opinion, and other factors? Are policies shaped by long-term strategic considerations or by short-term electoral concerns? And in particular, how has democratization affected policy-making processes in Mexico?

Drugs, Crime, and Violence

Luis Astorga and David A. Shirk

What is the current situation regarding illicit drugs?  While international attention has focused upon the war against terror, drug trafficking has assumed new and particularly dangerous forms.  The Mexican drug scene has changed considerably in recent years—with sharp increases in domestic consumption, accelerations in criminal violence, and rearrangements of the cartel structure.  Where are these dynamics heading?  What are the prospects for novel and/or meaningful bilateral cooperation?is the current situation regarding illicit drugs? While international attention has focused upon the war against terror, drug trafficking has assumed new and particularly dangerous forms. The Mexican drug scene has changed considerably in recent years—with sharp increases in domestic consumption, accelerations in criminal violence, and rearrangements of the cartel structure. Where are these dynamics heading? What are the prospects for meaningful bilateral cooperation?

Immigration and Labor

David Fitzgerald and Rafael Alarcón

Like it or not, labor migration responds to laws of supply and demand—and requires sensitive and sensible international policies.  The official stance of the Mexican government has shifted markedly in recent decades—but still remains unclear.  U.S. views are confused and contradictory: American employers welcome the labor while American workers fear the competition, and sentinels of social purity denounce the would-be dangers of cultural contamination.  What are the legitimate long-term interests of Mexico and the United States?  What mechanisms might help achieve those goals?

Natural Resources and Environmental Protection

Roberto Sánchez and Stephen Mumme

How to manage natural resources in an environmentally responsible way?  Mexico has a clear interest in developing natural resources, but should also consider strategies for conservation.  As a principal consumer of natural resources, the United States must confront its environmental responsibility—toward future generations and, especially, toward hemispheric neighbors.  How to balance these concerns? Papers might deal with water (including underground aquifers), forests, the atmosphere (i.e. “clean air”), and so on.

PART III. PROCESSES AND POLICIES

Processes of Policy-Making

Tonatiuh Guillén-López and John Bailey

Who makes foreign policy and how in Mexico and the United States?  Do Mexico and the United States have coherent strategies vis-à-vis one another?  What are the relative roles of the presidency, the legislature, special interests, public opinion, and other factors?  In particular, how has democratization affected policy-making processes in Mexico?  impact has NAFTA exerted on relative levels of economic development in Mexico and the United States? Has it reduced—or increased—the historic development gap? To what extent does NAFTA give rise to a positive-sum game? What are the social and political implications of this situation? Should U.S. policymakers be directly concerned about the progress of development in Mexico?

The United States and Mexico: On the Brink of a New Era?

Gustavo Vega and David Mares

In what way is the relationship between Mexico and the United States undergoing fundamental change?  Does the present moment offer an historic opportunity?  How and why?  What is likely to be the balance between continuity and change over the next generation? to manage natural resources in an environmentally responsible way? What are the trade-offs? Mexico has a clear interest in developing natural resources, but should also consider strategies for conservation. As a principal consumer of natural resources, the United States must confront its environmental responsibility—toward future generations and, especially, toward hemispheric neighbors. How to balance these concerns? Papers might deal with water (including underground aquifers), forests, the atmosphere (i.e. “clean air”), and so on.

Conclusion: The Possibilities of Partnership

Andrew Selee and Alberto Díaz-Cayeros